Voters in the Netherlands are set to potentially replace the most conservative government in modern history with a more centrist and pragmatic coalition during early general elections scheduled for October 29.
The Situation and Why It Matters
Snap general elections were called after the breakdown of the previous government in June, when far-right politician Geert Wilders withdrew his party from an already unstable and largely ineffective ruling coalition.
Wilders' party had finished shockingly first in the previous general election, and after extended negotiations established a fragile four-party conservative alliance with the populist Farmer-Citizen Movement, centrist New Social Contract and liberal-conservative VVD.
However, Wilders' government allies deemed him too toxic for the premier position, which ultimately went to a ex-security head. Wilders, an immigration-skeptic polemicist who has lived under police protection for twenty years, began criticizing from the sidelines.
He ultimately triggered the coalition breakup on June 3 after his partners refused to adopt a radical comprehensive immigration restriction proposal that included using military forces to guard frontiers, turning back all refugee applicants, shutting down asylum centers and sending home all Syrian refugees.
Although backing of the PVV has declined, polls indicate the rightwing, anti-Islam party is again likely to win the most seats in parliament. However, main Dutch political formations have all ruled out forming a government with Wilders.
No fewer than 16 parties are forecast to enter parliament, but no single party is expected to secure above approximately 20% of the vote. As usual, the future Netherlands administration, generally an significant force on the European and global scene, will be formed following alliance talks that could take several months.
How the System Works and Political Landscape
There are 150 MPs in the Netherlands legislature, meaning a government needs 76 mandates to achieve majority status. No single party typically achieves this, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions for over 100 years.
Representatives are chosen quadrennially – sooner when administrations fail – through proportional representation, based on an approved list of contenders in a single, nationwide constituency: any political group that secures less than 1% of the vote is assured of a seat.
As in much of Europe, Netherlands political life have been marked in modern times by a sharp decline in support for the historical ruling parties from the centre-right and left, whose electoral support has decreased from more than 80% in the 1980s to barely two-fifths now.
In the Netherlands, this process has been paralleled by a remarkable multiplication of smaller parties: 27 are running this time, including a senior citizens' party, a party for youth, a animal rights party, a party for universal basic income, and a party for sport.
Key Players and Main Issues
In the lead is Wilders' PVV, projected to lose up to eight of the 37 seats it secured last election. It advocates, among other measures, a total moratorium on refugee admissions, male Ukrainian refugees to be sent home, the military to combat "urban violence", and an end to "progressive education" in schools.
Two parties, of the centre-right and centre-left, are neck-and-neck after the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) dominated Netherlands government from the end of the seventies to the beginning of the nineties, and once more in the early 2000s, but slumped to only five mandates in the last election.
Nevertheless, under Henri Bontenbal, its youthful rising star, who joined political life only four years ago, the party has bounced back with a campaign emphasizing the dire Dutch housing crisis and a commitment of "normal, civilised politics". It is projected for up to twenty-six mandates.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an political partnership between the green party and the 80-year-old Dutch Labour party that is expected to become a complete unification, is projected to win a similar number, according to survey data.
Headed by the experienced former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, it has made constructing additional housing its primary focus, and has controversially included a net migration cap of between forty to sixty thousand people annually in its platform.
Three other parties look likely to be significant forces in the next legislature.
The center-left D66 is projected to increase representation – securing as many as seventeen, from its present nine – under its straight-talking young leader, with a campaign centred on residential construction (it plans to construct ten new urban centers) and an "individual basic benefit" for claimants.
The center-right VVD, the party of the former prime minister (now Nato chief), is forecast to decline to no more than sixteen mandates from its current 24, with its leader, criticized of moving the group excessively rightward, held responsible for its decline. It is promising business tax cuts and less welfare.
The anti-establishment, strictly rightwing JA21 is a breakaway group from a different rightwing formation – the previously successful, now controversy-plagued FvD – and appears to be profiting from an departure of voters from the three major rightwing parties. It could secure fourteen mandates.
In addition to the two main rightwing parties, both remaining members in the unsuccessful outgoing coalition, the BBB and NSC, are projected to lose out, with the centrist party not even sure of representation in parliament.
The top issues currently have been immigration, with several – occasionally aggressive – demonstrations against proposed asylum facilities for asylum seekers, the cost of living, and the chronic Netherlands issue of housing (the nation is lacking 400,000 homes).
Potential New Government
Considering the deeply divided state of Dutch politics, what alliances are feasible is just as important as who wins the election (or in this case, probably runner-up, since no major party will govern with Wilders, who maintains he intends to head a minority administration).
After the election, MPs first designate an informateur, who explores possible alliances. Once a viable coalition has been identified, a formateur, typically the leader of the largest potential partner, begins negotiating the formal coalition agreement. This can take months.
Various combinations look possible, typically including a mix of political groups from centre left and moderate right. The most likely, according to political analysts, include CDA and GL/PvdA, plus Democrats 66 and several smaller parties possibly incorporating the conservative party.
